HEALTH chiefs in Gwent are counting on Welsh Government funding allocations of almost £100 million over the next three years to help slash a forecast budget deficit.

Aneurin Bevan University Health Board has estimated it will incur extra spending of around £142m during 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2017/18 if it does not find savings.

But it has made a number of what a report is calling “critical” funding assumptions for the next three years that could reduce the potential deficit over the three years to around £45m.

Those assumptions focus on potential cash allocations from the Welsh Government in three areas –additional general growth funding, pay and pensions funding and additional central new funding.

The combined amount assumed to be heading Gwent’s way this year from these three sources is £33.7m, with £34.6m forecast for next year, and £30.4m for 2017/18.

Annual general growth funding is estimated to be £11.5m this year, raising to £25m each for the two years following.

Pay and pensions funding is estimated at £6.2m this year, £9.6m next year, and £5.4m in 2017/18.

Additional central new funding – targeted and based on health boards’ population shares, is estimated at £16m this year, though none has been forecast for the two years following.

At this stage, all these funding assumptions are estimates, but they enable health board bosses to predict what the in-house deficit is more likely to be.

For Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, that is likely to be around £45m over three years, based on £19.7m this year, £13.8m next year, and £11.5m in 2017/18.

As the Argus reported earlier this month, workforce costs are likely to be a key focus for helping cut the deficit, with the health board’s integrated medium term plan warning that “the current level of service provision and the workforce required to support those services is unaffordable in the medium term.”

Ways of working at all levels of the NHS in Gwent are being scrutinised and many roles are likely to change as the Specialist and Critical Care Centre opens and existing hospitals such as the Royal Gwent and Nevill Hall are adapted to become Local General Hospitals.

The health board employs close to 13,500 staff, and changes to the way services are run is set to bring a reduction in numbers.