ASSEMBLY AND PCC ELECTIONS: Polls open at 7am on Thursday

Polls in the fifth Welsh Assembly election will open at 7am on Thursday, closing a 10am and the first results expected to be declared early on Friday morning. But, depending on the results, it is likely to be later than that before we know what shape the next Welsh Government will take.

Labour has held onto control of the Senedd since the Assembly was formed in 1999 – only being forced to share power with Plaid Cymru between 2007 and 2011.

But the party is just one seat short of losing its majority, and pollsters have suggested it could be set to lose support this year.

What this means is unclear – the party could seek to hold onto power by forming another coalition, possibly turning to former partners Plaid Cymru.

Or opposition parties could put their differences aside and form their own ‘rainbow coalition’, pushing Labour out of power for the first time.

But with Ukip also predicted to make gains in tomorrow’s polls we could be looking at a very different political balance in Cardiff Bay on Friday morning.

Of all the major issues at the forefront of debate during the campaign, few are likely to have greater repercussions for voters in Gwent than the proposed M4 relief road.

The stretch of the motorway between junctions 24 and 29 is the most heavily-trafficked section of road in Wales and delays and congestion have long caused woes for drivers.

But if the long-in development plans go ahead a new 23km section of motorway will be built between junctions 23 and 29, running south of Newport.

If the present £1.093bn scheme, put together by the Labour Welsh Government, goes to plan building work will begin in spring 2018, with the new section of road opening to traffic in autumn 2021. The existing stretch of the motorway will be reclassified as a trunk road 12 months later.

The Welsh Conservatives have said if they win power tomorrow they will begin work on the road within 12 months. But the party has refused to say whether they back the current plans set out by Labour – dubbed the ‘black route’ – or one of the cheaper alternatives.

Plaid Cymru and Ukip have both said they would instead build the so-called ‘blue route’, which would use the Southern Distributor Road and the former Steelworks Road to create a new dual carriageway.

Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats and the Wales Green Party have both said they would scrap the project altogether and invest the cash elsewhere.

A report presented in March showed the project will involve knocking down 12 residential buildings, including the Grade II listed Vicarage in Magor.

And the plans have been met with opposition from a number of organisations which will be affected by the project – including Associated British Ports which last week lodged an official objection to a compulsory purchase order of about 87 acres of its land.

Claiming the road would “cut right through the heart of the port”, the firm’s director Matthew Kennerley said the development would be “a potentially devastating blow for the port of Newport”.

And Roadchef chief executive Simon Turl has said the new road would cut Magor Services at junction 23a off from the motorway, putting 190 jobs at risk.

A decision on whether to go ahead with the project will be made once the new Welsh Government is formed and it is possible a public inquiry will be held later this year.

Also at the forefront of many voters’ minds in Gwent will be the crisis in the steel industry. Indian conglomerate Tata Steel announced in March it would sell of its entire UK operation – including plants in Llanwern and Port Talbot – putting tens of thousands of jobs at risk.

Each of the parties running in tomorrow’s election has promised to do everything they can to support the sector, and whoever ultimately wins power will have the work cut out for them.

While it’s all to play for in all six Gwent constituencies, Newport West looks set to be one of the most closely-fought battlegrounds in the country.

Labour’s Dame Rosemary Butler served as AM for area since 1999, but stood down this year, prompting a heated battle for the seat.

Although Jayne Bryant is hoping to hold onto the seat for Labour, opposition parties are bringing out some of the big guns, with former Newport Mayor and city council member for Allt-yr-yn Matthew Evans contesting the seat for the Conservatives and former Wales Green Party leader Pippa Bartolotti also throwing her hat into the ring.

Also running for the seat are Plaid Cymru’s Simon Coopey, Independent Bill Fearnley-Whittingstall, Mike Ford for Ukip Wales, Gruff Meredith of Cymru Sovereign and Liberal Democrat Liz Newton.

The four South Wales East regional seats also look set to be a source of –

Of the four AMs who won the seats in 2011, only one – Conservative Mohammad ‘Oscar’ Asghar – is running again this year. And, while every party has put forward a robust list of candidates, pollsters have suggested Ukip will gain at least one seat in each region.

If this is correct it will mean former Conservative Rochester and Strood MP Mark Reckless – who triggered a by-election when he defected to Ukip in September 2014 – will be among the new South Wales East AMs.

Although Mr Reckless won his seat in the by-election, he lost it in the General Election in May 2015.

When they arrive at their polling station each voter will be faced with three ballot papers – one for their constituency AM, one for the regional list and a third for the Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC).

While constituency AMs are chosen on a traditional first past the past system, regional members are appointed through proportional representation.

Each party fields a list of regional candidates, with votes cast for party rather than individual and the four seats shared out according to proportions of the vote.

And the PCC election uses the supplementary vote system, though which a candidate receiving more than 50 per cent of the vote wins.

When one overall winner does not emerge all but the first and second place candidates are eliminated, and second choice votes for those who picked one of the removed candidates for their first choice are redistributed.

This will be only the second time voters will go to the polls to pick their PCC, with the role introduced in 2012.

Although Independent candidate Ian Johnston was elected as Gwent’s commissioner in 2012, in March he announced he would not be running for re-election this year. And all three candidates running for the role this year are doing so under party colours, with former Caerphilly AM Jeff Cuthbert standing for Labour, Louise Brown for the Conservatives and Darren Jones for Plaid Cymru.

The Argus will feature extensive coverage of the election results and their aftermath both in the paper and online. For the latest, pick up a copy of the paper or visit southwalesargus.co.uk.