AFTER dismal poll results at the start of the campaign, Labour could now be set for its best result in Wales in 16 years in tomorrow's General Election, a new survey has predicted.
Polls carried out when the election campaign got underway six weeks ago suggested the party was set to make some major losses in Wales, with both Newport seats among those said to be at risk of falling to the Conservatives.
But more recent studies have shown a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the party in Wales, with the final Welsh Barometer Poll of the campaign, which was published this afternoon, suggesting Labour could regain the Gower and the Vale of Clwyd, both of which fell to the Conservatives in 2015, taking its overall number of seats in the country to 27.
Plaid Cymru is not predicted to make any gains but will retain the three MPs elected in 2015, while the number of Liberal Democrat MPs in Wales will remain static at one, the poll carried out by YouGov for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre predicts.
Ukip is not predicted to win any Welsh MPs.
Roger Scully the Wales Governance Centre said, if the poll is correct, Labour will enjoy its best election result in Wales since 2001.
“This has been an extraordinary campaign, for an unanticipated election,” he said.
“Not least of the extraordinary features has been the substantial turbulence in the opinion polls.
“Our final Welsh poll, however, suggests that we may be on course for business as usual, at least in terms of who wins the seats.
“Labour have come first in both votes and seats at every general election in Wales from 1922 onwards.
“The last person to defeat Labour in a general election here was Lloyd George – and he had just won a world war.”
But he warned a good result for Labour hinged on younger voters coming out to vote, with 73 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds saying they intended to vote for the party, while just 14 per cent backed the Conservatives. Meanwhile, 56 per cent of those aged 65 and older said they would vote Conservative, and 27 per cent Labour.
“Older voters have long also tended to be more reliable in actually coming out to vote on the day,” he said.
“Having enthused many younger voters, the key task for Labour must now be to ensure that they actually turn out.”
“If they do not, Labour could still face serious difficulties in this election.”
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