A NEW poll of voters in Wales has shown a surprising result – that a party dedicated to abolishing the Welsh Assembly could win representation in the Senedd.
New research by Sky Data has shown the Abolish the Assembly Party would win two regional seats if an Assembly Election was held today.
The party – a single-issue group dedicated to abolishing the Welsh Assembly – ran candidates in the 2016 Assembly Election, winning 4.4 per cent of the overall vote. But this was not enough to secure it a seat in any region.
But the new poll suggests the party could win one seat in North Wales and another in Mid and West Wales.
The polling also showed Plaid Cymru would gain an extra seat in South Wales East.
Currently the region is represented by one Conservative, Mohammad Asghar, one Ukip AM, David Rowlands, and Plaid Cymru’s Steffan Lewis, as well as Mark Reckless, who was elected on Ukip’s regional list, but later left to join the Assembly’s Conservative group, although he has not officially re-joined the party.
The polling suggests the Conservatives and Ukip would both retain their single seat, while Plaid Cymru would gain one.
In North Wales Ukip is predicted to lose its one seat, along with Independent Mandy Jones, with the Conservatives to gain an extra seat, taking them from one to two, and Plaid to retain their one AM.
And in Mid and West Wales Labour will retain their two AMs and Plaid their one, while Ukip will lose their single seat to the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives would retain their two seats in South Wales Central, while Ukip would lose their one AM – group leader Gareth Bennett – with Plaid Cymru taking the seat, taking their representation from one to two.
South Wales West would remain unchanged with two Conservative and two Plaid Cymru AMs.
The research also showed none of Wales’ 40 constituencies would change hands in either an Assembly or General Election, meaning Labour would retain their 27 constituency AMs and 28 MPs. The Conservatives would keep their six constituency AMs and eight MPs, while all six Plaid Cymru consistency AMs and four MPs would be re-elected, and the Liberal Democrats would retain their sole AM in Brecon and Radnorshire.
Head of Cardiff University’s Department of Politics and International Relations Professor Roger Awan-Scully called the result “striking”.
“Party support levels have changed little since last year’s General Election, and Labour are still well ahead for both Westminster and the Assembly,” he said.
“The Conservatives are in a clear second place for a General Election. In the context of a devolved election they are in a close contest with Plaid Cymru for second place.
“The Liberal Democrats continue to flounder, and Ukip are but a shadow of the electoral force that won seven seats in 2016.
“But Sky’s new poll suggests that there may be a new kid on the block competing for some of the regional list seats in the Welsh Assembly: a grouping whose very purpose is the abolition of that institution.”
The findings of the research are largely in line with other polls carried out recently.
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