Three years since the Brexit vote, where are we now?

JUNE 2016 almost feels like a different world.

David Cameron was prime minister, the idea of Donald Trump stepping into the White House seemed pretty far-fetched, and terms like "backstop" "remoaners" and "WTO rules" were yet to enter the popular lexicon.

Then the bombshell dropped, as voters in the UK voted 51.89 per cent to 48.11 per cent to leave the European Union.

In Wales support for leaving was even greater, and in Gwent all but one local authority area voted for Brexit, with Blaenau Gwent racking up the biggest pro-leave vote in Wales, with 62.03 per cent.

And the sole area where Remain came out on top - Monmouthshire - it did so only by a very small margin, with 50.44 per cent of the vote.

It was a spectacular feat by the Leave campaign and a very large pie in the face for the pro-EU establishment.

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And it set of a chain of events no-one could have predicted.

Originally we were due to leave at 11pm on March 29 this year - less than three years after the vote - but, with MPs repeatedly rejecting Theresa May's withdrawal agreement with the EU, Brexit day was pushed back to the end of October, and some have predicted it could be pushed back yet further.

In the meantime, we've had mounting calls for a second referendum - the 'people's vote' - although Theresa May has been steadfast in saying no such vote will be held, and the chance of her successor - whether Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt ultimately wins the leadership contact - seems remote, to say the least.

Monmouth MP David Davies was one of Wales' most vocal pro-Brexit voices. He said is was frustrated the March 29 date had been missed and the wishes of voters expressed in the referendum are yet to be fulfilled.

"People have voted for it three times," he said. "They voted in the referendum in 2016, in the General Election in 2017 they voted Conservative and Labour, who both stood on a platform of supporting the referendum result - the Liberals didn't get a look-in - and in the European Election who won? The Brexit Party.

"So they've told us three times they want to leave."

(David Davies)

He added: "It's very disappointing that MPs have not voted for us to leave yet, despite the vast majority of whom saying they would uphold the referendum result in the 2017 General Election.

"The fact is a vast majority of MPs - in both Labour and the Conservative Party - have served to undermine the vote because they think they know better.

"They should just be honest and say 'we know better than you'."

"What they should have done is accepted there is a lot of unhappiness with the EU and push for a deal which allowed us to leave, while keeping a close relationship."

Although Leave ultimately got a higher share of the vote in Wales than across the UK as a whole in 2016, have opinions changed since 2016?

It depends who you ask.

While many Leave voters insist their views are as strong as they were three years ago, opinion polls tell a different story.

A poll carried out in May showed opinions in Wales have swung from Leave to Remain.

The survey carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University found, if a second second referendum was held, 44 per cent would vote to remain, and 41 per cent to leave.

The remaining 15 per cent said they wouldn't vote, didn't know who they would vote for, or didn't answer - and when these are eliminated the pro-remain support is more acute, with 54 per cent saying they would vote to remain, and 44 per cent to leave.

But the actual issue of a second referendum is itself a divisive one, with 49 per cent of respondents to the poll saying they didn't support holding one, while 41 per cent said they did and 12 per cent said they didn't know.

While some seem to have changed their opinions, there are others who have been unequivocal and unmoving in their position from day one - to support a second referendum.

Among them is Torfaen AM Lynne Neagle, who has long backed a so-called 'people's vote'.

(Lynne Neagle)

Speaking in the Assembly earlier this month the Labour AM said: "Forcing Brexit through won't provide certainty about where we're going.

"Whether you want to stay in the EU or leave, there is only one way to break the Brexit deadlock, and that is to respect the people and give the people a final say."

Another long-time supporter of a second referendum is Blaenau Gwent AM Alun Davies.

Speaking in a debate in the Assembly earlier this month, the Labour AM said there was "absolute gridlock" over the issue - and the only way for this to be resolved is to hold another vote.

(Alun Davies)

"It is unlikely to change as a consequence of the election campaign taking place within the Conservative Party," he said. "It is unlikely to be resolved by a General Election.

"I do not believe that we should leave without a deal. That would be an extraordinary act of sacrifice, which is at odds with the country that we are, at odds with our history and at odds with our culture.

"I do not believe that we have any alternative but to extend Article 50 to allow a referendum to take place, to allow us to begin the process of healing in this country."

Although the Welsh Government had stopped short of officially backing a second referendum – with both first minister Mark Drakeford and his predecessor Carwyn Jones saying they favoured another General Election instead – this changed following May’s European election.

With the Brexit Party putting in a stunning showing - winning two of Wales' four seats in Brussels - and Labour and the Conservatives having a relatively dismal result, Mr Drakeford said he now believed the only way forward was for a second referendum to be held, and the Welsh Government would campaign to Remain.

This position was applauded by some within his party, although others lamented he had not taken this position sooner, including Alun Davies, who said it was "too late".

In a statement issued earlier this week before a meeting of the British and Irish Council, Mr Drakeford and his Scottish counterpart Nicola Sturgeon said they would work together to campaign to stop Brexit.

(Mark Drakeford)

They said: “The EU will not simply cave in to demands to re-open the Withdrawal Agreement, and claims that we could both leave without a deal and still benefit from tariff-free trade with the EU have been disproved.

“The new prime minister must change course and rule out ‘no deal’ under any circumstances.

“It is now clear that, due to the deadlock at Westminster, there should be a new referendum on EU membership and both our governments would support remain. We will work together and with others who share that aim.”

Predicting what happens next is tough. For his part, David Davies said he believed the chance the October 31 date would be fulfilled were "about 50-50", but said the outcome of the Conservative Party leadership race would have an impact on this.

"I am assuming Boris (Johnson) is going to win," he said.

"The EU don't want us to leave without a deal because that will be even worse for them than it is for us.

"If they think we have a prime minister who is serious about leaving without a deal - as I think Boris is - they might offer us a better deal, and that might get through Parliament as a least worst option.

"I will vote any way to support any action necessary to get us out by the end of October. Whether we'll succeed in that I don't know - but if we don't we are going to face the justifiable wrath of the public."

But if the people's vote campaign have their way, Brexit will be pushed back even further - and possibly scrapped altogether.

The next five months will be crucial, and it's anyone's guess what happens next.

So, does Brexit really mean Brexit? The answer to that seems no clearer than it did in 2016.

Brexit timeline

• May 7 2015 - The Conservative Party, led by David Cameron, wins a majority in a General Election. Included in the party's manifesto was a promise to hold a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.
• February 20 2016 - The referendum date is announced as June 23. Mr Cameron announces the UK Government will campaign to remain.
• June 23 - The UK votes to leave the EU.
• June 24 - David Cameron resigns as prime minister.
• July 13 - Theresa May is appointed as the new prime minister.
• January 17 2017 - Mrs May rules out the UK remaining in the single market or the customs union, but promises MPs will have a vote on the Brexit deal.
• March 16 - MPs vote to trigger Article 50.
• March 29 - Mrs May officially triggers Article 50, beginning a two-year countdown to leaving the EU.
• April 18 - Mrs May announces a snap General Election will be held on June 8.
• June 8 - The General Election is held. The Conservative Party loses its majority and is forced to sign an agreement with the DUP.
• June 19 - Formal negotiations between the UK and the EU begin.
• March 21, 2018 - The Welsh Assembly approves a continuity bill, which would keep EU laws in devolved areas in place in Wales post-Brexit.
• April 24 - The Welsh and UK Governments come to an agreement around devolved powers post-Brexit. It means the UK Government cannot pass legislation on devolved areas without consent from Wales, and cannot hold devolved powers previously held by Europe for more than seven years.
• July 6 - The UK Government cabinet agrees an outline of the UK's future relationship with Europe - the so-called Chequers agreement.
• July 8 - David Davis resigns as Brexit secretary in protest against the agreement.
• July 9 - Dominic Raab is announced as the new Brexit secretary.
• November 14 - The withdrawal agreement is published.
• November 15 - Dominic Raab resigns as Brexit secretary.
• November 16 - Stephen Barclay named as new Brexit secretary.
• November 20 - The Welsh Assembly votes to repeal the continuity bill.
• November 25 - The EU approves the withdrawal agreement.
• December 12 - Theresa May survives a vote of confidence by her own MPs.
• January 15 2019 - MPs reject the Brexit bill for the first time.
• January 16 - The government narrowly survives a vote of no confidence.
• March 12 - Brexit bill voted down again.
• March 14 - MPs vote to extend Article 50.
• March 21 - Leaders of the 27 EU countries vote to allow Article 50 to be extended to May 22 if a withdrawal agreement is passed, or April 12 if it is not.
• March 29 - Brexit bill voted down again.
• April 2 - Theresa May announces she will ask for Article 50 to be delayed further and begins cross-party talks with Jeremy Corbyn in an effort to break the deadlock.
• April 10 - The EU agrees to extend Article 50 to October 31.
• May 17 - The cross-party talks break down without agreement.
• May 24 - Theresa May resigns.
• July 22 - New Conservative Party leader to be elected.
• October 31 - New Brexit day.

How you voted in 2016:

• Newport: Leave: 55.99 per cent, Remain: 44.01 per cent
• Monmouthshire: Leave: 49.56 per cent, Remain: 50.44 per cent
• Torfaen: Leave: 59.78 per cent, Remain: 40.22 per cent
• Blaenau Gwent: Leave: 62.03 per cent, Remain: 37.97 per cent
• Caerphilly: Leave: 57.63 per cent, Remain: 42.37 per cent
• Wales average: Leave 52.53, Remain: 47.47 per cent
• UK average: Leave: 51.89, Remain: 41.11 per cent