CAERPHILLY county borough is likely to see a continued rise in cases, with a peak expected in two weeks.
Health minister Vaughan Gething revealed the news at today's coronavirus briefing, where he also said Wales could be in a national lockdown in less than seven weeks' time if the current spike continues.
In the last seven days Caerphilly has had 167 positive cases, according to Public Health Wales, with 47 recorded on Monday.
Mr Gething said there are similarities in the rise in cases in Caerphilly, Newport, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taff, including people socialising without social distancing and people returning from holidays abroad.
The health minister also said more people in their 40s and 50s were testing positive in Caerphilly.
The Welsh government is looking at further actions, including the possible introduction of curfews, restricting alcohol sales and changing the way that pubs can operate - including only serving alcohol with food.
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Since local lockdown began, Caerphilly has increased its enforcement officers to ensure businesses in the borough are following covid-proofing rules, and Mr Gething spoke with leader of Newport council Jane Mudd this morning about how they are doing the same.
Feedback from Gwent Police regarding how people are complying with social distancing in Caerphilly borough since the area went into lockdown on September 8 has been positive.
On the possibility of a national lockdown, he said: “If we see cases continue to rise then we may be in a position to make that decision (on a national lockdown) and need to make that decision sooner than the seven-week period of time."
He reiterated the public across Wales need to reconsider their choices "if we are to avoid more local lockdowns or a national lockdown".
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