CAERPHILLY is the only area of the UK that has the coronavirus under control, a study predicts.

The 'coronavirus calculator' predicts that Caerphilly is the only local authority in Britain that is likely to see a decreasing number of cases in the next two weeks.

Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of England and Wales have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 50 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'

Caerphilly's risk drops from 41 per cent this week to 20 per cent next week.

Over the last seven days, Caerphilly has seen 50.8 cases per 100,000 people.

The news is less positive in the rest of Gwent though, including in Monmouthshire which is yet to be placed into local lockdown.

Newport is likely to see an increase in cases, the study suggests, and remains at a high risk of being a hotspot.

South Wales Argus:

The calculator is confident that cases will increase in Gwent's other local authorities.

It gives Blaenau Gwent a 99 per cent likelihood of remaining a hot spot over the next two weeks.

While Torfaen sees an increase from a 72 per cent chance this week to a 96 per cent chance next week.

Monmouthshire meanwhile, rises from the low six per cent hot spot chance this week to a 44 per cent chance next week.

The county, which has yet to have extra restrictions placed on it, has a case rate of 29.6 per 100,000 over the last seven days.

Lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial, said: "COVID-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.

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"The model allows us to project where local hotspots of COVID-19 are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends that we’re seeing in those areas."

The website was produced by the Department of Mathematics, in collaboration with the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (GIDA), and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) at Imperial.

It uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to reported a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The site also provides estimates for each local authority in England and Wales on whether cases are likely to be increasing or decreasing in the following week and the probability of R(t) being greater than 1 in the following week.

South Wales Argus:

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

Dr Swapnil Mishra, from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, said: “We provide weekly predictions of the evolution of COVID-19 at the local authority level in England and Wales. Our model helps to identify hotspots – probable local areas of concern.

"We hope that our estimates will enable swift action at the local level to control the spread of the epidemic.”