THE two-week 'fire break' lockdown is already having an impact on the number of coronavirus cases in Wales – but it could be weeks before the NHS sees the vital benefits of the restrictions.
That is the view of Wales' Tactical Advisory Cell (TAC), a group of scientists who advise the Welsh Government on their approach to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The 'fire break', which ended on Monday, was the re-imposition of nationwide lockdown measures to tackle rapid increases in the number of coronavirus cases.
It is hoped the lockdown will have eased pressures on the NHS ahead of what is normally its busiest time of year.
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This winter, the NHS in Wales has contingency plans to expand its capacity by 5,000 extra hospital beds, should the combination of Covid-19 and seasonal pressures require it.
On Wednesday, TAC member Brendan Collins told the Senedd health committee the advisors "were seeing a signal of a reduced number of cases in the last week or so," as well as reduced positivity – the proportion of people tested who receive a positive result.
There is also evidence people took the stay-at-home message seriously during the 'fire break' period, Dr Collins added.
"So far, we think the signs look good in terms of the 'fire break,'" he told the committee.
Torfaen MP Lynne Neagle asked TAC whether hospital admissions had gone down because of the 'fire break'.
Andrew Goodall, the chief executive of NHS Wales, said it was "too early" to say despite some "encouraging" signs.
"It's really important we allow ourselves a few days to look at the implications," he told the committee. " Really, it's going to take 2-3 weeks to see the full impact flow into the NHS, certainly in respect to hospital admissions and critical care."
Dr Goodall said limiting the impact of Covid-19 on hospitals was of paramount importance.
He told the committee: "The more we protect the NHS, the more we are able to make sure we carry on with a balance of other activities and not revert to a Covid-19-only emergency response."
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