WALES' firebreak lockdown was a "pure research experiment" and a measure that does not work, an expert has argued.

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London (KCL), said the 17-day lockdown in the autumn was a model for why longer term policies were needed.

Professor Spector said the nature of stop-start lockdowns causes problems, and the idea that you go from a total lockdown to a release is "counterproductive".

He said: "You have these periods of lockdown and then a release, and everyone goes crazy.

“And then you advertise there’s another lockdown coming up so everyone goes out, meets all their friends, goes to the pub - increasing infections, then you lock up with your family and household with your infections and it increases again.

“We’re seeing some of the effects of that in places like Wales at the moment.”

He added that in Wales, the firebreak lockdown was a “pure research experiment” and those measures do not work.

“That’s a very good model of why you need a longer term policy to deal with social behaviour.

“People will react to these short, sharp changes socially, and compliance will change and we’re not with lab rats, and none of the models that some modellers are putting out there really realise that as the environment changes people’s reactions will change,” Prof Spector said.

First Minister Mark Drakeford said that the firebreak in Wales had had the desired impact, but that restrictions had perhaps been relaxed too quickly at the end of the period.

On November 27, Mr Drakeford said: “The advice and figures we have show the firebreak did what we wanted, and perhaps was even more effective than we had hoped.

“In the post-firebreak period, as people have mixed, it has come back faster than we anticipated.

“The firebreak was successful; it is how things have happened afterwards which has led to this.

“Had we had stricter restrictions, that might have made a difference. That is very certainly an arguable position."

Speaking at a webinar as part of the Royal Society of Medicine’s Covid-19 Series, Prof Spector said social distancing measures could be around for at least another year, but that the worst of the pandemic may be over by April.

He added that after Easter next year, things should be more “pleasant” and people might even be able to go on holiday.

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Prof Spector said: “The acute problem, I think, will be over by April.

“And then we’ll be in a phase-out for at least another year of having low levels of disease, outbreaks, small infections that will come and go, and I think we’re still going to be having social distancing for at least another year.

“But hopefully this isn’t going to affect us too much socially, and I think a lot of this will hopefully be more voluntary.”

Prof Spector, who leads the Covid Symptom Tracker app study which is run by KCL, added that people are unlikely to instantly go back to previous practices, with many possibly continuing to work from home, and fewer commuters.

Prof Spector said: “I think we have probably got at least a couple of years where we’re going to see this virus appearing and disappearing… just like having bad flu breakouts every year.

“And we’re going to have repeated injections, we may be tested to see if we have antibodies, and we’ll be understanding a bit of the interactions for our patients - you know, those on immunotherapies or other drugs, much more about.

“So I think this isn’t all going to be over in one go. It’s going be a slow phase-out.

“But I am optimistic that if we can just get our mental state together until Easter, we can hang on in there, it’s going to get a lot more pleasant after that, we can start to relax a bit, and even go on holiday, which would be lovely.”