The dramatic fall in coronavirus case rates in Blaenau Gwent

The county borough has been hit hard by Covid-19, particularly during the second wave through the autumn.

But in the weeks since the latest lockdown was announced, the area's case rate has fallen from being among the highest of Wales' 22 council areas, to one of the lowest.

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There is a long way to go of course - more weeks of adhering to lockdown restrictions, while new variants cause concern among experts, and the vaccination programme continues.

But Blaenau Gwent's has been a remarkable transformation, and other parts of Gwent have also seen big reductions in rolling weekly case rates - and the efforts of residents and health staff here have been praised by First Minister Mark Drakeford and the area's health board.

Blaenau Gwent went into local lockdown on September 22, as the second wave of coronavirus began to take hold in south Wales, and remained under those restrictions into the firebreak lockdown which started a month later.

But as in many other parts of Wales, that two-week shutdown, which ended on November 9, did little to stop the rising tide of cases in Blaenau Gwent, which soon had the highest rolling weekly case rate in Wales, and among the highest in the UK.

By early December, the situation was serious enough for the county borough council to declare that it would close its schools a week before the official end of term, with learning being transferred online from December 10. It was the first local authority in Wales to take that step, one which others would soon follow.

The council had one eye on ensuring pupils could self isolate more easily ahead of the forthcoming festive season, which at that stage was set to involve significantly more mixing of household groups during the so-called 'five days of Christmas' agreed by the UK Government and the devolved administrations.

That plan was scaled back significantly as Christmas approached however, amid increasing cases across much of the UK.

Blaenau Gwent had already been at the sharp end of those increases. When the council announced the aforementioned cutting short of face-to-face learning - on December 4 - the area had the highest rolling weekly case rate in Wales, of 502 per 100,000 population.

By December 18, the day before the shutters came down on the festive season as the ongoing lockdown was announced in Wales and the rest of the UK, the rolling weekly case rate in Blaenau Gwent had climbed to 863.1 per 100,000.

As a measure of the grip coronavirus has exerted across Wales through December however, this was by then 'only' the third highest such rate in Wales, with neighbouring Merthyr Tydfil's case rate at that time a startling 1,128.9 per 100,000.

The case rate in Blaenau Gwent too, rose above 1,000 per 100,000 shortly before Christmas.

Merthyr Tydfil was the subject of a mass testing programme, something that has not been pursued in Blaenau Gwent, though Aneurin Bevan University Health Board has through much of the autumn and into the winter deployed mobile testing centres throughout the county borough to support its temporary testing venues there.

Lockdown measures have taken some time to arrest the spread of coronavirus across Wales, but in the past couple of weeks, there has been a fall in cases, case rates and test positivity rates, though all of these remain too high.

In Blaenau Gwent on December 30, the rolling weekly case rate had fallen to 654.1 per 100,000, still the third highest in Wales.

By January 4 that rate had fallen to 531, the seventh highest in Wales. Four days later, another small decrease had been recorded, to 523.9, but by January 13, the reduction was again more pronounced, at 429.4. This was at that time the ninth highest rate in Wales.

Five days later - January 18 - the Blaenau Gwent case rate was down to 217.6 , the eighth lowest in Wales.

And by yesterday, it had fallen to 151.7 the second lowest in Wales, behind only Anglesey (139.9).

First Minister Mark Drakeford attributed the fall in cases in Wales to a 'wave effect' of coronavirus, as well as the actions of residents.

"I think the pattern we've seen in Wales has been the virus starting in the south east corner, places like Blaenau Gwent in the firing line first of all, then the virus moves west and north, and today the rates in Blaenau Gwent are lower than they are in Gwynedd, for example, in north west Wales - which stood out against the virus for so long," he said.

First Minister Mark Drakeford

First Minister Mark Drakeford.

"I think the big explanation is that there is a wave pattern that coronavirus tends to have. Blaenau Gwent at the moment is seeing the plus side of that, just as it had to live through some very difficult days and weeks when the extent of the virus was much higher.

"It's also a tribute to the actions of those people who live in that part of Wales and the tremendous support that there has been for the measures that we have had to ask people to take.

"The efforts in the Gwent area have really been outstanding and contribute to the way in which those figures are coming down."

The leader of Blaenau Gwent Count Borough Council, Cllr Nigel Daniels, said that although the fall in cases had been significant, there is more work to do.

“We continue to work hard, and with a number of partners, to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic on a local level here in Blaenau Gwent,” he said.

“Local authority staff across a wide range of service areas remain fully committed to responding to this sustained public health emergency, helping to keep our communities safe and providing support to schools, businesses and our most vulnerable people.

“We’re pleased the restrictions in alert level four appear to be having a positive effect on the numbers of cases in our area.

“The restrictions, combined with the success of our tracing teams in identifying contacts and offering advice, appear to be helping to slow the spread of the virus, in order to protect our NHS and ultimately save lives.

“However, cases remain high and there is still extreme pressure on hospitals in Wales, and we must all do what we can to relieve this pressure.

“We’d like to thank the people of Blaenau Gwent for their help and for playing their part in fighting the pandemic by sticking to the rules.

“Whilst this is very good news and means we are moving in the right direction, we must remember that we are still very much in the grip of this pandemic and there is no room for complacency with this virus.

“The new variant prevalent in many parts of Wales is up to 70 per cent more transmissible so we must all remain vigilant and I would urge everyone to continue to stick to the rules and do what is necessary to keep Wales safe.”

Cllr Nigel Daniels

Cllr Nigel Daniels, leader of Blaenau Gwent Council.

A spokesman for Aneurin Bevan University Health Board said: “We are seeing a decline in Covid-19 cases across the health board’s area and the dramatic decline in cases in Blaenau Gwent is a brilliant example of what can be achieved by staying at home and following the government guidelines.

“Again, the public has acted together to protect local NHS services, and we would like to thank everyone for staying at home and following the guidelines when the NHS needed their help most.

“However, we cannot allow ourselves to become complacent. Our hospitals remain very full and we still have more than our usual maximum number of patients in Intensive Care.

“We know that the virus, particularly its new strain, is still extremely contagious and that Covid-19 remains present in all communities across the health board’s area.

“We would like to thank the public for all that they are doing to bring down cases on Covid-19 in our communities. It is working and we ask everyone to keep following the rules to ensure we continue to see a decline in cases.”

The nature of the coronavirus pandemic, and the propensity for the virus to mutate into new, more infectious variants, means that it cannot be taken for granted that case numbers and rates will keep falling, even during a lockdown that will be in place for several more weeks.

But the progress made in Blaenau Gwent - and many other parts of Gwent and Wales - as a result of the combination of actions outlined here, and the efforts of those who live there, is a welcome positive note in the midst of a very trying winter.