Opinion poll suggests Labour ahead in Senedd election race

Pollsters Opinium found 40 per cent of voters are likely to choose a Labour constituency candidate in May's election, and 38 per cent will select Labour on the regional list.

The Welsh Conservatives are likely to make gains in the number of Senedd seats, despite lower support for the party now than at the time of the 2019 General Election, Opinium found in its voter analysis, commissioned by Sky.

Some 30 per cent of Welsh voters are likely to vote for a Tory constituent, and 27 per cent will opt for the party on the regional list, the poll found.

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Meanwhile, Opinium estimates Plaid Cymru will receive around 19 per cent in both votes, while support for the Welsh Liberal Democrats is predicted to be four per cent on both constituency and regional ballot papers.

The pollsters said Labour's vote share was forecast to rise, thanks in part to an expected drop in support for UKIP – which enjoyed considerable success in the 2016 Senedd election, held at the height of interest in the Brexit referendum.

While UKIP won roughly 13 per cent of both votes last time around, Opinium does not predict the party will receive more than two per cent of the regional list vote in May.

These estimates for party returns have all been adjusted to exclude 'don't know' responses to the survey, which was conducted between April 9 and 19.

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A larger vote share could help Labour win some regional seats, the pollsters suggest.

"Even if Labour loses constituency seats to the Conservatives, the party’s seat tally might remain unchanged or even up on last time as it gains regional list seats," Opinium said today.

Opinium also asked voters which party leader they believed would be the best first minister, and Labour's Mark Drakeford – who has led the Welsh Government since 2018 – was the most popular choice.

Mr Drakeford (29 per cent of the vote) led Tory leader Andrew RT Davies (10 per cent), Plaid Cymru's Adam Price (eight per cent) and the other party leaders – but one in three Welsh voters said they did not know which candidate would make the best first minister.

On the question of Welsh independence, the Opinium poll puts support at around 28 per cent, if there was a referendum held tomorrow.

Adjusted to exclude 'don't know' answers, this would put current support for independence at an estimate at nearly 33 per cent.

But the majority of people (52 per cent, adjusted to 61 per cent after 'don't know responses are excluded) would oppose independence if a snap referendum were held, Opinium found.

This article originally appeared on the Argus' sister site The National.