THE latest Senedd election opinion poll suggests a late upturn in support for the Welsh Conservatives.
The Tories can expect a slight rise in vote share on both the constituency and regional ballots, researchers found.
The YouGov poll, conducted over recent days with a sample of 1,017 adults in Wales, suggests support for Welsh Labour has remained largely unchanged, with the party still on course to remain the largest in the Welsh Parliament.
Labour is likely to hold a seven-point lead over the Tories when it comes to constituency voting intention, YouGov found.
Mark Drakeford's party is currently tipped to receive 36 per cent of the constituency vote (up from 35 per cent last month), while Andrew RT Davies' Welsh Tories are set to win 29 per cent (up from 24 per cent).
YouGov suggested the late boost for Mr Davies' party "looks to be 2019 Tory voters moving from [responding with] 'Don’t know' in April to Conservative now".
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Support for Plaid Cymru has dropped in recent weeks, according to YouGov. Adam Price's party is currently expected to win 20 per cent of the constituency vote – down from 24 per cent when YouGov last surveyed the Welsh public in mid-April.
The latest opinion poll found voter intention for other parties had not changed significantly over the past fortnight. With regard to the constituency ballot, current support for Reform UK is four per cent, the Welsh Liberal Democrats is three per cent, and the Greens and Abolish the Welsh Assembly are both at two per cent.
On the regional ballots, more voters are expected to opt for Labour (31 per cent) than any other party.
The Tories are tipped to pick up 25 per cent of the regional vote, ahead of Plaid Cymru (21 per cent), Abolish (seven per cent), the Greens (five per cent), and the Lib Dems (four per cent).
And YouGov pollsters suggest Wales could be in for an improved turnout this year.
Of the adults sampled, 60 per cent said they were either "absolutely certain" to vote or had done so already by post.
Wales has never recorded a turnout of more than 50 per cent for a Senedd election. Could this be the year that changes?
This article originally appeared on our sister site The National.
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