The beef market could become more stable in 2025 according to Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC).

HCC data analysis proposes a more positive future for beef prices following the present experience of minor, weekly price decreases.

"Increased short term domestic supply; increased imports of Irish cattle and sluggish retail demand" contribute to the current lower adjustment in prime cattle prices, said Glesni Phillips, HCC’s intelligence, analysis and business insight executive.

She highlighted the backdrop of rising farmgate prices in recent years, especially since 2020, making the average significantly higher.

This has been "somewhat negated by rising key farm input costs for beef producers, that have been fueled by huge inflation rates, which had put pressure on the profitability of businesses," she added.

So far, 2024 has seen deadweight prices for steers begin near £4.90/kg, and peak at £4.95 in early March but each successive week saw a decline, currently at around £4.77/kilo.

Heifers and young bulls experienced similar trends, while cull cows showed mostly positive price movement, currently around £3.59/kilo – approximately 45p higher than the average for the first week of January.

Supply data indicates a slight increase in prime beef cattle and dairy males aged 12-30 months in the short term, with potential supply up to two per cent higher at 1.8 million head as of April 1.

However, breeding herd trends for the past ten years clearly illustrate a decline.

High production costs, market volatility, changes in government subsidies, TB restrictions, and pressures surrounding environmental impacts have all put pressure on both the beef and dairy sectors.

Ms Phillips noted that the industry has managed to weather this thanks to technological advancements and improved herd management.

Beyond 2024 into 2025, these factors are predicted to affect domestic supplies.

"GB data suggests the potential supply of prime beef cattle and dairy males aged 0-12 months is down three per cent on the year at 1.9 million head of cattle," Ms Phillips reported.

Lower numbers in youngstock were anticipated as calf registration numbers fell sharply last year and continued to decline in quarter one of 2024.

The decrease in supply is expected to continue and balance the market.

"These contributing factors all add up to the likelihood of greater market stability as they filter through towards the end of 2024," she said.