SOUTH Africa hold the key to the World Cup. They can affect the destiny of the trophy at the end of the six-week extravaganza which gets under way here on Friday.

The Springboks won't win the World Cup and they won't make the final on November 22 either.

But they can have a massive influence on who actually wins the William Webb Ellis Trophy.

I am talking about the crackerjack pool match in Perth on October 18 between South Africa and England.

The crown probably rests between England and New Zealand, but that crunch against the Springboks will be really important.

England's hopes rest not so much on whether they will win that game, which they surely will, but on whether they can keep Jonny Wilkinson on the pitch.

The last meeting between the sides last November was explosive as South Africa resorted to dirty tactics as they tried to bully England with an over-physical approach.

It got them nowhere because they slumped to their worst international defeat, hammered 53-3, but more to the point lock Jannes Labuschagne was sent off for a vicious late and low tackle on Wilkinson.

Jason Robinson afterwards accused the Springboks of trying to maim England players.

And since then South Africa have been in more trouble, notably against Australia in the summer's Tri Nations tournament when Robbie Kempson was banned for punching, and their tactics met with similar disapproval.

Such can be the Afrikaaner mentality that the World Cup clash against England could easily be a bloodbath.

There is no doubt whatsover they will target Wilkinson, and England's hopes of becoming the first Northern Hemisphere country to win the World Cup rest on the outcome.

England are, of course, much more than a one-man team, but Wilkinson is undoubtedly the lynchpin and it would be a mortal blow if the Springboks nobbled him and put him out of the tournament.

He has already scored 739 points in international rugby, 704 in 46 Tests for England and 35 in three for the British Lions, and he's only 24.

The other problem for England could be the weather and the firm pitches.

If the tournament were in New Zealand I would have no hesitation in tipping England because of the wet and soft pitches.

That would be more in keeping with what is essentially an ageing side with a fair smattering of over 30s in their ranks.

England may be at the peak of their powers, and if they can protect Wilkinson and avoid other injuries they could well win the World Cup, but perhaps they haven't got long to go as a team.

The big threat is New Zealand, a far younger squad and with so many pacey, dangerous backs capable of running most opposition off their feet.

The conditions, in contrast, ought to suit them more than those at home, and they could really come into their own.

They go into the tournament on the back of winning the Tri Nations competition, with record wins against South Africa (52-16) and Australia (50-21) on the way.

And they also regained the Bleddisloe Cup after five years by beating Australia 21-17. They are the form team, along with England, and backs of the calibre of heavy try scorers Doug Howlett and Joe Rokocoko could run amok.

They've also got a stunning back row, and openside Richie McCaw could be the player of the tournament.

It could well be a north-south showdown between England and New Zealand in the final, South Africa permitting.

But even then there is that unknown quantity, that absolute banana skin called France. Who will ever forget their magnificent comeback against the All Blacks in the semi-final at Twickenham four years ago when they fought back from the dead for a sparkling victory?

They face a potential semi-final this time against England, and though they each have a victory from this summer's mini-series, that was the phoney war. The real deal is just around the corner.

Wales will be also rans, pretty much on the sidelines playing for pride in the quarter-final against England, if they get that far.

But reach the last eight they must if our trip largely to the rugby backwater of Canberra with a dash of Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane thrown in, is to prove worthwhile.

Scotland may not emerge successful from their group including France and Fiji while Ireland, minus key players like Geordan Murphy and Rob Henderson, are in an even tougher pool including champions Australia (who look past their best) and Argentina. The winners? It really is too close to call.

Barring a major upset it does look like an England-New Zealand final, and what a corker that would be.

Hold a gun to my head - which David Moffett and Steve Lewis would dearly love to do - and I'd say New Zealand.