IT'S COME to this - Wales must beat Italy in Canberra on Saturday to reach the quarter-finals of the World Cup.

It was always going to be that scenario from day one really, but it still rankles that Wales are so low down the pecking order that they have to beat a nation where rugby is a minority sport in order to survive.

As one Italian journalist put it, 'The pressure is all on Wales. If they lose it will be a disaster, if we lose it will not matter so much.'

He added that they never want much of a story to break on a Monday because they can't get any rugby news into their paper as it's all football.

Surely Wales can't go down to a country where our national sport means so little.

The Italian is right enough because it will be totally unacceptable if Wales lose to them.

Graham Henry is also right (as the Argus back page told you yesterday) when he says Wales must get their selection correct.

And I would start with outside half where Stephen Jones is not the man to bring the best out of Iestyn Harris or, indeed, the rest of his backs.

He is one of the players whose confidence appears low and he is not the all-round player of a year or two back.

He puts boot to ball far too often, thus denying Harris the opportunity to influence events in the way he did against Canada.

Harris put up a masterful performance then, dictating the course of the game with his running, his deft skills, adroit kicking and putting a player into space.

That was mainly because the pack established a platform and also because Ceri Sweeney gave him the ball and let him run the show.

Harris was unable to do that against Tonga, a general performance so ineffectual that the promise shown against Canada was so dissipated that it has set the alarm bells ringing as it only can when Wales are involved.

So the solution is either to move Harris to outside half or keep him at inside centre where he appears better suited and play Sweeney against Italy.

The experience and commitment of Gareth Thomas will also be needed while full back Rhys Williams appears another player low on confidence which will herald the return of Kevin Morgan.

The experiment of playing Gethin Jenkins at tight head appears to have run its course which would mean three loose heads and one tight head prop in Australia, not the best situation.

I also agree with Henry that the best locks appear to be Brent Cockbain and Chris Wyatt, who did lift the Welsh performance when he replaced the ineffective Gareth Llewellyn.

And Colin Charvis does not appear the best captain for the job, another ineffective player and lacking the necessary inspirational powers for a leader. Martyn Williams, who said he didn't want the job, appears a better choice.

And, as Henry says, the only specialist number eight is Alix Popham, though Dafydd Jones has played there often enough.

The arrival in Canberra of the Chinese premier today followed by President George Bush on Thursday is pretty seismic in these parts, but it won't stand comparison if Wales go down to the Italians on Saturday.

It's a big week for Steve Hansen, who has been a different man out here, more relaxed and easy going.

But things went wrong against the Tongans, even if Wales did just about win.

Hansen is hardly likely to be adventurous now and go for a player like Shane Williams, but I think he should to bring in a touch of the unexpected which Williams provides, and I still think he should have brought Gavin Henson and played him at full back.

As it is, if Wales do manage to beat Italy and secure qualification for the knock-out stages, it is certain that all those who haven't had a game or only a few minutes as a replacement are going to be thrown to the wolves for the final group match against the All Blacks.

Italy coach John Kirwan has made just one change against Canada today, and their second string players are complaining they haven't been given a chance. The same thing could apply to Wales.

Anyway, make no mistake about it, the heat is really on now. It's win or bust in Canberra on Sunday.

Selection is going to be all-important and I'm going to name three different teams for the task.

STEVE HANSEN'S TEAM:

K Morgan.

G Thomas

S Parker

I Harris

M Jones

S Jones

G Cooper

I Thomas

R McBryde

G Jenkins

G Llewellyn

R Sidoli

D Jones

C Charvis (captain)

M Williams

GRAHAM HENRY'S TEAM:

K Morgan

G Thomas

T Shanklin

I Harris

M Jones

S Jones

G Cooper

I Thomas

R McBryde

A Jones

B Cockbain

C Wyatt

D Jones

A Popham

M Williams (captain)

ROBIN DAVEY'S TEAM

K Morgan

G Thomas

S Parker

I Harris

S Williams

C Sweeney

G Cooper

D Jones

R McBryde

A Jones

B Cockbain

C Wyatt

D Jones

A Popham

M Williams (captain)