A PILE-UP on the M4 was responsible for Wales' first minister, Rhodri Morgan, arriving an hour late to address Newport Business Club at Celtic Manor Golf Club last Thursday evening.

It added poignancy to a question from the floor, asking how Rhodri felt about the idea of an M4 relief road.

Mr Morgan claimed that the proposed project was one of the most difficult infrastructure questions in Wales.

"The cost would be around £300 million," he said, "and we have to consider whether it is worth putting Wales in hock to pay for it.

"On the other hand we also have to consider what would happen if the surface of the M4 around, say, the Brynglas Tunnels became so pickled that we had to have major resurfacing and had just one lane running in each direction."

Mr Morgan said that reboring the tunnels to make three lanes in each direction was out of the question because the land had such delicate geology.

"When McAlpine's built those tunnels I remember it was really touch and go, and the last thing we want is to destabilise the mountain and have homes sliding."

He said the southern perimeter relief road would be a partial solution and would also help to exploit commercial opportunities in its hinterland and redress the loss of jobs at Llanwern.

Questioned about the prospects of Severnside Airport, Rhodri - who is Assembly Member for Cardiff West - said there were two ways of looking at it.

"About 40 years ago I remember a Group Captain Peter Masefield, who was with British European Airways, said that the Gwent Levels was the best natural site in Britain for an airport.

"His reasoning was similar to that of today's proponents: the low environmental impact of planes taking off and landing over water and the links to London and Birmingham by train or road.

"But commercial reality says that private enterprise would expect the closure of Cardiff and Bristol airports before huge sums were invested in Severnside, and as this will never happen it remains pie in the sky."

Mr Morgan said that Severnside had become a classic urban myth, with many people in Newport's pubs asserting that Sir Terry Matthews and Sir Richard Branson had already got their heads together and produced a done deal.

Asked if he feared the enlargement of Europe to include a number of low cost-base East European countries, Mr Morgan said: "Today's situation is the repeat of one exactly 30 years ago, when in January 1973 Britain entered the EU and Wales became the cheapest place in the union for manufacturing.

"This heralded the arrival of companies like Sony, Panasonic and Sharp.

"But Poland's wages are currently one-sixth of those in Wales, and in Romania they're just one-twelfth.

"We've already seen plenty of manufacturing moving out to these regions, but in many cases it is relatively old analogue technology.

"Wales has hung on to the latest digital stuff and even enhanced it with the relocation of hi-tech plant from the USA.

"This is an established pattern, and if the world economy continues to grow we should be all right, if it contracts we will have difficulties."

Mr Morgan claimed that one of the few good things to have emerged from the recent months of international uncertainty was the fall in value of the pound relative to the euro.

"Two years ago a euro was valued at 58 pence, now it's about 66 pence and we'd like to see it rise to about 70 pence to reflect genuine purchasing parity. At that level our manufacturers have a chance of selling their goods across Europe and making a profit."

At the outset of his speech Mr Morgan listed all the major public/private capital projects earmarked for Wales and suggested that the private sector's best bet was to capture as much of the sub-contract action as it could possibly get hold of.

"In this way we will see the multiplier effect maximised in Wales rather than in France or Germany," he said.

Mr Morgan was thanked by event sponsor Professor James Lusty, of University of Wales College, Newport.

PICTURE: Rhodri Morgan, centre, with Coleg Gwent's David Mason, left, and Professor James Lusty, of UWCN