EDUCATION chiefs estimate that 36 schools in Gwent will close within the next five years.
Twenty-four secondary and primary schools shut across Gwent during the last two years and a further 12 are now earmarked for closure.
A major cause of the closures is the massive number of surplus school places - more than 10,000 across Gwent.
Unpopular closures have already hit schools including Park Street Infants, in Abergavenny, and Bedwellty Comprehensive.
The latest school to be axed is Trevethin Community School in Pontypool.
It will close in 2007 after Torfaen borough council's plans were rubber-stamped by the Assembly executive last week.
Wales education minister Jane Davidson said Trevethin School had become "too small to be viable financially or educationally".
But although education chiefs are often demonised by parents and teachers campaigning to keep their schools, council bosses are also struggling against falling school rolls.
Torfaen council's executive member for education, Councillor John Turner, said: "Issues such as falling rolls, curriculum delivery and staff recruitment and retention must be addressed for the benefit of all our pupils."
Colin Barnard, project manager of Monmouthshire county council's review of primary education, believes the closures are not just a result of the numbers.
He said: "It is not just a question of surplus places. The National Assembly has set a target of 2010 to get all Wales' schools up to modern standards as well.
"In Monmouthshire we had the problem of Victorian school buildings in disrepair.
"Our job is to bring the schools we have up to standard in the most efficient way, whether that is through closure or refurbishment."
Often, when a school closes, multiple issues are at play - run-down buildings, lack of space to incorporate modern facilities, a drop in pupil numbers or budget deficits.
Mr Barnard does concede that the drop in population is an important factor.
He said: "People forget when they talk about surplus places that we budget for every place, so every empty school place is money wasted."
The buzzword among the education authorities is 'streamlining' - smaller schools are joining together, making big primaries out of infants and junior schools in the same area.
The economic advantages of scaling up are familiar in Caerphilly, where the council has almost completed its primary education review, which has seen six mergers between junior and infants schools, as well as three primary schools moving to one new superschool.
But even though the birth rate has fallen from the clichd 2.4 per family and is now closer to 1.6, every council faces different problems as populations shift.
Councillors and education leaders have accepted action must be taken to reach the standards set by the Assembly administration for 2010.
Now they are keen to draw attention away from the closure element of Gwent's education shake-up.
Councillor Peter Fox, cabinet member for education at Monmouthshire county council, said: "People shouldn't always look at it so negatively.
"It is emotive, but it is not always about closing schools so much as about building new ones."
The new Deri View School in Abergavenny is officially set to open on October 11. Along with the new Cantref School, on the Harold Road site, this replaces Park Street Infants, Croesonnen Infants, Llwynu Infants, St David's Junior and Harold Road Junior Schools.
One person who has perspective on the issue is Councillor Bob Wilcox, from Grosmont, who saw the village school shut in 1991 despite a bitter local fight.
He said: "People thought it would destroy the village but it hasn't."
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