A NEW report predicts there could be more than 2,400 surplus school places in Monmouthshire by 2010.

Education officials are warning that the seven per cent slump in school rolls could lead to even more school closures.

In the past five years rolls have fallen nine per cent, with just 12,571 pupils at schools in the county in 2005, compared with 13,821 in 2001.

By September 2010, council officers forecast there will be 1,808 surplus places in primary schools across the county and 642 in secondary schools.

In a report to Monmouthshire county council, education chief Andrew Keep said new housing developments had kept the numbers up in some areas but that there were low birth rates in others.

"In the next few years, the authority will be addressing future phases of school re-organisation to continue to remove surplus places and ensure the viability of schools," said the report.

Schools with fewer than 90 pupils are particularly under threat, with the report highlighting the Audit Commission's recommendation that "a primary school should ideally have no fewer than 90 pupils".

Currently there are 14 such schools in Monmouthshire: Govilon; Clydach; Darenfelin; Llanfair Kilgeddin Church in Wales; Llanover; West End Infants; Wyesham Infants; Wyesham Juniors; Ysgol y Ffin; Rogiet; Llandogo; Cross Ash; Goytre Fawr; and Llanvihangel Crucorney.

The increased demand from parents for their children to be taught in Welsh medium schools is expected to continue.

The four comprehensive schools - Caldicot, Chepstow, Monmouth and King Henry VIII in Abergavenny - are likely to survive any cuts, with the report saying that was "an appropriate number (of schools) to maintain". Earlier this year the Argus reported that two Monmouthshire schools, West End Infants and Sandy Lane Infants, both in Caldicot, were already under threat of closure because of surplus places.

There are 89 pupils in West End Infants, with a surplus of 85 places, and 102 pupils at Sandy Lane, with a surplus of 72.

Monmouth MP and AM David Davies said residents were likely to object to further school closures.

"We have already had a number of painful closures in Monmouthshire. "I don't think the public will accept more."