The big question

The bank has boosted its growth forecast for the current quarter from 1.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent. It is also predicting 2.8 per cent annual growth for 2014, rather than the 2.5 per cent it forecast in August.

We've been asking local business people what they think...

Cennydd Thomas, corporate finance manager at Newport-based chartered accountants UHY Peacheys

After five years of bad and mixed news on the economy I think there is more optimism in the economy generally, with companies willing to dust-off those long held investment and recruitment plans. In addition, the banks seem to be showing an increased appetite for lending in order to fund this expansion. This is good news for business and employment levels. It should be remembered that we are not expecting to see pre-credit crisis growth levels for a while, however any growth will be better than no growth. It should also be noted that the recovery is still very much in its infancy and is prone to external shocks. The retail results for the Christmas period will show how much consumer confidence has actually returned but we won’t know these figures until January. In summary, there are plenty of reasons to go into the Christmas period with a glass half full mentality.

Peter O'Toole, chief executive, RMS, Newport

We have seen signs of recovery from the summer with improved retail sales. The confidence in the future has released capex for the majors to further drive competitive advantage. The independent retailers are investing as well which is a true whiteness mark we are truly in the recovery mode. I will predict that this will be the best retail Xmas for many years which will finally drive us out of recession.

Ieuan Rosser, managing director at Newport-based recruitment agency Smart Solutions

The last nine months, and this quarter in particular, has been particularly strong for us. The number of staff we are supplying to businesses has increased 25 per cent, and we are not anticipating any immediate drop in the demand for flexible labour. This suggests that the businesses who recruit through us are in similarly strong positions and feeling confident.

It is important to keep things in perspective, but it certainly does feel that things are changing for the better.

Gerald Davies, chairman, Kymin

'Green shoots' has been an unpopular phrase ever since it was used by Norman Lamont, Chancellor in the early 1990s. It turns out he was right but not before he was sacked.

There is a temptation to believe that things will always get better next year, whenever that year is. I call that 'the grass is greener the other side of the fence', or the other side of Christmas.

As it happens, I do believe that the recovery is under way. People have shaken off the paralysis that overcame many, in the wake of the Banking Crisis of 2008/2009. As with any recovery, there will be problems along the way but I genuinely believe that the trend is now upwards. Certainly, at Kymin, we have been experiencing an increase in enquiries, leading to the highest levels of business in our twenty year history. Talking to other professional firms, the feedback is all positive, so perhaps this year we can look forward to an enjoyable Christmas and a really prosperous New Year.

Robert Twigg, commercial property partner, Everett Tomlin Lloyd & Pratt Solicitors

I’m not sure if we’ve turned the corner yet, but green shoots – in the form of an increase in the number and frequency of instructions for commercial property transactions – are starting to appear.

David Russ, managing director of the Centre for Business

While it is probably too soon to say we have turned a corner, things are certainly improving.

We have certainly seen a stark rise in the number of people coming to us looking for support to help get their start-up ventures up and running over the last few months.

These people are the lifeblood of the economy and, with the right advice and assistance, can turn their ventures into thriving businesses that will offer employment to the wider community.

Noel Williams, managing partner, Newport-based Kilsby & Williams Accountants

In the last three months it seems spring has arrived early. Many of our clients are reporting good growth and there is a resurgence in corporate finance activity. The key now is to see the green shoots turn into a bumper crop. To do this the Welsh Government needs to ensure they listen to business and do everything they can to help this new crop grow.

Graham Morgan, director of the South Wales Chamber of Commerce

Recovery is certainly gathering momentum and confidence in the business community is growing. This has been a consistent theme in our surveys for the last six quarters. Now is the time to further stimulate economic growth here in Wales.

This includes improving the physical and digital infrastructure, while making access to support for businesses of all sizes easier to identify through the 'One Stop Shop' concept we have consistently promoted.

We also see massive possibilities for businesses in Wales to exploit opportunities associated with the renewable energy industry, and we must continually develop our workforce to ensure they have the skills required by this sector.

Clive Thomas, managing partner at Watkins & Gunn Solicitors

Absolutely! We have definitely noticed an improvement in the economy. Everyone I have spoken to, across a number of different sectors, has been buoyant and positive about the last quarter. There seems to be a real confidence in the air with people taking on staff and beginning new projects and ventures. I think that maintaining this new found confidence to grow and expand in business is essential if we want these green shoots to take root.

John Newell, director of Kingston Newell Estate Agents

Commenting about green shoots from a residential property perspective, the increased activity in the housing market for both lettings and in particular sales are positive indicators regarding the economic recovery. The most recent Land Registry figures (October) reported that house prices in Wales decreased -0.4 per cent on a monthly basis and -1.7 per cent annually but in Newport these were increasing by 2.7 per cent monthly and 0.1 per cent annually with the average house price being £113,621. Home buyers have a newly restored confidence due in part to increased job security, low interest rates and the affordability of the area.

Recent speculation about the possibility of an interest rate rise depending upon employment figures continuing to decrease might impact on our industry as this will affect borrowing, but in summary yes there definitely are green shoots and yes I think we’ve turned the corner.”

Dan Smith, director of M4 Property Consultants

There has been a noticeable increase in enquiries compared to this time last year especially in the Industrial sector of the commercial property market. We’ve noted that the number of companies looking for additional space or larger premises is now greater than those looking to downsize or sub-let space in their existing units as was the case just last year.

The Newport commercial property market is also picking up. All of the retail units we manage in the city centre are occupied and we’ve recently been instructed to market a retail unit on Caerleon Road that has been un-occupied for two years. In the last 10 days, two parties have registered their interest. On the Celtic Springs Business Park there has over the last couple of years been quite a few empty properties. There is growing interest for these, for example Willow House in Cedar Court on the business park would have previousky been a difficult unit to let but within the first two months we have received interest from two parties.

So with this in mind, there are definitely signs of the much sought after green shoots. Have we turned the corner? It’s still too early to confidently say yes but compared to this time last year it s a lot more promising and favourable.

Mathew Roderick, managing director, GD Environmental

The continuous sign of improvement in the British economy echoes sighs of relief throughout the country. Subsequently, we need to consider is this a platform for stability or green shoots? The encouraging buoyancy in sectors such as construction and manufacturing demonstrates that there is a positive demand for commercial and residential properties, this alone makes me think we’re on the road to recovery.