THE OUTCOME of Wales’ showdown with Argentina today is a Catch-22 situation for Warren Gatland and his men.

If they win by any margin, even a huge one, many will (perhaps rightly) just shrug and say, ‘So what? You still can’t beat the real southern hemisphere big boys’ after last weekend’s bitterly disappointing 24-15 defeat to a South Africa who won fairly comfortably in the end at the Millennium Stadium.

But losing against a poor Pumas side, who have been pummelled by almost all and sundry of note in 2013, is unthinkable.

This afternoon’s visitors are without their injured inspirational captain and world class back rower Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe, out with a broken elbow, and they are, quite frankly, in complete disarray.

They were put in a tailspin after they were annihilated twice at home by England’s second string in the summer when many of their senior players were away with the victorious British and Irish Lions in Australia.

And although they came perilously close to first beating South Africa at home in the ferocious Rugby Championship (1osing 22-17) and then toppling the wobbling Wallabies away (an agonising 14-13 setback), they haven’t really recovered, whitewashed in a tournament where they did suffer some ferocious beatings.

The Springboks gave them a 73-13 hiding in Soweto before Australia swept them aside 54-17 in Rosario during the competition’s final game, their head coach Santiago Phelan resigning not long after with Daniel Hourcade replacing him.

The Pumas, the planet’s tenth best team according to the International Rugby Board, have won four times this year but those victories have been cheap triumphs.

Two of those victories came narrowly against Uruguay, ranked 21st in the world and Georgia, 16th, both successes were by the same 29-18 margin.

The other pair were an 85-10 thrashing of mighty Chile (ranked 27th) and a battering of Brazil (graded one place above Ukraine in 34th spot) their other next door neighbours, the Pumas edging that one 83-0.

Last week lumbering England laboured to victory but still won with ease at Twickenham by 31-12. Worrying times for a country who just six years ago finished third in the World Cup, beating hosts France twice in that tournament.

The last team the Pumas beat in the IRB’s Top Ten rankings would have to be Wales wouldn’t it? That comfortable 26-12 triumph at the Millennium Stadium last November really upset the hosts who went on to be humbled by Samoa, New Zealand and Australia in a shocking month before bouncing back to win the Six Nations after losing their next game to Ireland.

In fact, Wales haven’t won a single autumn series for an astonishing four years. Who was that against? Well again it would have to be Argentina, Shane Williams scoring two tries in a 33-16 triumph which saw a young Newport Gwent Dragons back row forward called Dan Lydiate make his debut as a late replacement for Andy Powell.

That seems like an aeon ago and Wales need to break their terrible autumn duck since then today after a run of nine defeats and a draw.

Wales’ forwards, with six Lions in the pack, and buoyed by last weekend’s brave performance up front against the powerful Boks eight, will be more than a match for the beefy Pumas, although Rhodri Jones shoulders enormous responsibility on the tighthead in his third cap.

A different look to the back row, the same one which played so well in clinching the Six Nations 30-3 against Grand Slam-chasing England, sees Justin Tipuric back on the openside, captain Sam Warburton switching to the blindside to replace the injured Lydiate (ankle) and Toby Faletau at number eight, will be of great interest.

But the real question is how the backs will fare after their thud and blunder display against the South Africans when presented with decent possession.

Much of the responsibility naturally falls on the shoulders of the fly-half and the restored Dan Biggar can prove to the world, and more importantly to Gatland, that he’s the best No 10 in the country.

With James Hook unavailable for the crucial Test against the Wallabies in a fortnight because he hasn’t got a full release clause in his Perpignan contract, it’s up to Biggar, excellent in the Six Nations triumph last season, to show he is the man and not the currently hesitant and error-prone Priestland who seems low on confidence.

It’s a big day for young Cory Allen, 20, making his debut in the centre and fledgling international wing Liam Williams gets another opportunity to show what he can do after being forced off early with a head injury last week.

Wales (1/5) should beat Argentina (4/1) by about 20 points.