DISCRETION will surely prove to be the better part of valor when it comes to how Chris Coleman does or doesn’t deploy Gareth Bale in the international break.
After the famous victory in Cardiff over Belgium at the end of last season, I wrote in this column that Welsh hubris was making me uncomfortable, because what if Bale missed the closely bunched final four qualifiers.
Of course, Bale didn’t, he scored the decisive goal against Cyprus and helped Wales to a useful point against Israel, all but guaranteeing qualification for France next summer. Half of a century of hurt to be banished, unconfined joy and anticipation to come.
However, with Wales now a point away from guaranteed qualification to France – and more than likely, not even a point – Bale has a minor calf issue. Nothing unduly concerning, but worth considering very carefully if you are Chris Coleman.
Because while Bale’s commitment to Wales is obviously beyond question, the landscape has changed with his situation this season in terms of Real Madrid having a different manager.
Where Chris Coleman and Carlo Ancelotti had trust and understanding from several meetings, Rafa Benitez and Coleman are as of the last time Coleman was asked about it, yet to speak face-to-face. Coleman was planning to go to Madrid after these next qualifying games.
And Benitez’s comments on Bale’s potential comeback in a Wales shirt were hardly encouraging.
"I do not know if it will be two or three weeks," Benitez said. "It is a small injury, not a serious injury, and our experience is that Gareth recovers well. We are optimistic. We will have to see -- if the player is fit to go and play with his national team there is little you can do. Although I know his national coach and there could be some dialogue. Our objective is to have Gareth back as quickly as possible."
With the situation in Group B as it is, with Wales so close to qualification, there seems to be no possible reason to risk his fitness in Bosnia, or even to just risk damaging relations with Benitez.
At best, Bale comes back for Wales against Bosnia and helps them to the point (or three) needed to rubber-stamp qualification. But equally, he could play and Wales could still lose a difficult contest.
At worst, he could re-aggravate the injury, pick up a new one, or Coleman and Wales could simply fall out of favour with Bale’s club manager, all to play in a game Wales probably don’t even need to win.
Only Israel winning in Brussels – with Belgium still needing points themselves to guarantee qualification – can put any onus on Wales in their final game, at home to Andorra. If Israel do somehow pull of a shock, Wales only need a home draw against the minnows.
And then, and surely only then, would you consider Bale in a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ sort of sense. A half, an hour, even a 20-minute blast of Bale in front of a raucous home crowd, should be enough to absolutely guarantee Wales’ safe progress against a team of part-timers.
There are two reasons why I believe it is the right course to wrap Bale in cotton-wool, or to pander to his club, as some might see this, when the player himself will probably be desperate to play in both qualifiers – he’s only two goals off being the top scorer in qualifying.
Firstly, and simply, to protect the player and to minimise the possibility of politics and ill-feeling creeping in with his club side, as players are prone to muscular injuries on their return from other injury.
But more importantly, Wales should tread lightly with Bale because they get a glorious trade-off from Bale playing for the La Liga side, where he remains the world’s most expensive player.
While this reporter and others would love to see Bale back in the Premier League, in terms of preparation for the Euros next summer, imagine, if for example, Bale still played for Spurs.
Last season the Lilywhites reached the last 32 of the Europa League, the final of the Capital One Cup and played 58 games in total, without going deep in the FA Cup. Had Bale still been a Spur, he’d have played a great number of those games. Christian Eriksen, for example, played 53 times.
Incidentally, so did Bale, exactly 53 games last season for club and country, but the difference between Bale at Madrid and in the Premier League in monumental.
At Madrid, Bale was substituted frequently, something that wouldn’t have happened if he played in England (never happened when he was in his Spurs pomp), while he also benefitted last term, as he will this, from a winter break. The evidence is pretty clear that it helps other European nations to have to down time in winter, when it comes to peaking in June. Bale will hopefully be the freshest player in the Welsh squad when we hit France.
And that is going to happen. Even without Bale; Wales will beat or at least draw with Andorra, a result they might not even need if Israel don’t shock Belgium.
Qualification is virtually secure and incredibly, Wales don’t even need their superb talisman to get over the line.
So let’s pander to Real Madrid and Rafa Benitez now, let’s handle Bale carefully and try and get a good point in Bosnia without him, relying instead on Wales’ incredible defence.
There is no need to take any risks, break glass in case of emergency, but Gareth has done his bit. Wales should be looking at the long-game.
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