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A PREDICTION: the two teams that drop out of the Football League in April won’t have the same managers that start the campaign this weekend.

It’s that time of year when plenty of views are being expressed about what will unfold over the next nine months in League Two, a notoriously tough division to predict.

Newport County AFC have been tipped by most to struggle and that’s understandable given the spending power of their rivals.

The Exiles were beaten at Wembley in 2019 and 2021 then in 2022 were in the mix for automatic promotion in March before the wheel came off.

However, it’s unlikely that the club will be mixing it in the top half this time around given the budget that manager Graham Coughlan has at his disposal compared to rivals with deep pockets.

The Irishman guided County to 15th last season after taking the reins in mid-October when relegation was a real possibility.

It’s his presence that gives the Exiles greater hope of avoiding a scrape with the drop in 2023/24 – he is a fighter and things appear to be well structured with him and trusted assistant Joe Dunne at the helm.

South Wales Argus: DUO: Joe Dunne and Graham CoughlanDUO: Joe Dunne and Graham Coughlan (Image: Huw Evans Agency)

Take them out of the picture and things would be nervier, but County are far from the only ‘have-not’ club in that position.

Derek Adams revelled in Morecambe edging out the Exiles at Wembley before he had a disastrous spell at Bradford.

He went back to the Shrimps and saved them from the drop in 2022 but couldn’t repeat the trick in May.

Morecambe have financial worries – and have lost talisman Cole Stockton - so a lot rests on Adams’ League Two nous.

The same goes for Accrington, Sutton, Harrogate – their chances are increased (from someone looking from the outside, at least) by the presence of John Coleman, Matt Gray, Simon Weaver.

While a managerial change can work, as it did for County last season, stability will mean that a club is going well and likely to be okay.

This is shaping up to be a brutal season in which nobody – not even those that were comfortably mid-table last season – will be safe.

You will be able to throw a blanket over those that finish outside the play-offs to just clear of the relegation battle.

That makes it exciting and horrendous in equal measure and you just want it to be somebody else that drops, and that’s with pity for their fans given the financial problems that follow.

My predictions for the League Two season…

South Wales Argus: CLASS: Stockport can build on last season to go upCLASS: Stockport can build on last season to go up (Image: Huw Evans Agency)

TOP THREE

The strength of the division means that there won’t be much between those that go up automatically and the eighth-placed team that misses out on the play-offs.

Stockport were superb last season after a slow start on their return to the Football League and came close to automatic promotion before Wembley woe.

With a formidable squad and top manager in Dave Challinor, they won’t need the play-offs this season.

Not since Bristol Rovers in 2016 has a team gone straight up from the National League but Wrexham will be in with a shout to do just that – with the ability to spend big in January for an extra boost.

Mansfield haven’t been in the third tier since 2003 and I fancy them to finally go up this season, although they could just as easily finish outside the play-offs again.

Nigel Clough’s side were pretty good last year and have added some real quality with former County man Aaron Lewis adding to their depth and ex-Cardiff man Aden Flint bringing even more physicality.

South Wales Argus: PRESSURE: Mark Hughes must cope with great expectations at BradfordPRESSURE: Mark Hughes must cope with great expectations at Bradford (Image: Huw Evans Agency)

PLAY-OFFS

It will be a mad scramble but I fancy Bradford, Salford, Notts County and Gillingham to be in the top seven, then it’s pot luck.

That would mean Doncaster, MK Dons, Swindon and dark horses Barrow missing out, which only goes to show how competitive things will be.

RELEGATION

I’d love to be proved wrong but County have to be put in with the gang of potential strugglers.

However, I am confident that they will be preparing for another campaign in League Two in August, 2024 – I reckon they will be between 15th and 18th.

They need more goal threat to go with Omar Bogle but the midfield looks strong and the defence, under the watchful eye of former centre-back Coughlan, can be solid if they stay fit.

The Exiles have to be better at Rodney Parade and the club's financial plight, plus realism about what is ahead, should galvanise the Amber Army.

South Wales Argus: CRUCIAL: Crawley need Dom Telford to fireCRUCIAL: Crawley need Dom Telford to fire (Image: Huw Evans Agency)

Crawley are still the basket cases and will need to work out a way of getting the best out of former County golden boot winner Dom Telford.

I think Harrogate could be at risk and Sutton could slide, Morecambe and Accrington could certainly be at risk of double drops while AFC Wimbledon were pretty poor last season.

It would just be nice for a handful of teams to be so shambolic that County can watch with interest and I’ll plump for Crawley and Harrogate to be the unfortunate ones.

Their fans are unlikely to be Argus subscribers, please don't tell them I picked them.