Newport County ready for unpredictable League Two campaign

Cut the cardboard doors off, put them in a bag and pick one at random: a handy method of predicting a final placing for the upcoming League Two campaign that is as good as any.

Goodness knows what the 2024/25 season has in store for the Exiles, although it would be a massive shock if the scraps of card with one to three written on them turned out to be accurate.

Nelson Jardim’s squad could be surprise play-off contenders, they could have a pretty dull campaign, they could have a relegation scrap, they could be relegation fodder.

The fourth tier is always unpredictable but that’s especially the case for County as they prepare to head into a draining campaign with a head coach stepping up to be a boss, a new playing style and a raft of EFL novices.

Patience is essential for us all this season because this is the Huw Jenkins way of doing things and there won’t be a huge change in direction if results aren’t healthy heading into winter.

It’s the time of year when pundits are tasked with predicting who will finish where – slightly unfair given that the transfer window is still open – and they haven’t got a lot to go on when it comes to the Rodney Parade club.

I only have to cover County in detail but I haven’t got the foggiest about what they will serve up.

If I was pushed then I’d say they’ll finish between 15th and 20th, but that’s not with any real conviction. Ask again in two months.

However, a raft of predictions have already been made. Here are a selection…

BOSS: Newport County head coach Nelson Jardim (Image: Gareth Everett)

Not the Top 20 Podcast: 22nd

A podcast that should be on every EFL fan’s list, one that provides terrific insight and helps to keep abreast of what is happening away from Rodney Parade.

Anyway, they predict a season of struggle for County but one that will see them just stay above the dotted line, with Michael Flynn’s Cheltenham finishing bottom and Accrington also going down.

“It’s hard to place them because a lot of their business we don’t know anything about,” said co-host George Elek.

“It’s a massive risk for a side like Newport to bring in a coach who hasn’t managed before, but we have seen that work many times in this league.

“The underlying numbers and performances at the back end of last season were aggressively bad, the worst team in League Two in terms of xG ratio, and watching them was a fairly desperate experience.

“[The recruitment drive] might be great, I don’t know enough about these players, but we have to do this on what we do know.

“All I know is that looking at their squad from last season I would be worried anyway, and in Jardim and the signings they have made, it’s very difficult to sit here and think it is going to work.

“It might do but we have to go on what is at hand, and it does feel there is the potential that they are taking huge risks which may not pay off. I am pretty worried for them and Newport County fans have to hope that Huw Jenkins knows what he is doing.”

Co-host Ali Maxwell summed up with: “New era, new Newport, I am excited for the feeling of freshness and concerned it could be a complete disaster.”

FourFourTwo magazine: 21st

The challenge of a deadline for a print magazine was shown by the Morecambe entry, with the Shrimps put as bottom of the pile before their raft of signings.

However, the County verdict is based on solid stuff.

“New chairman Huw Jenkins may struggle to bring ‘The Swansea Way’ to Newport County, a club that has historically thrived with a siege mentality rather than possession-based ideals.

“However, they should stay up, once they’ve reverted to their core identity.”

FFT have Accrington and Morecambe going down with Bromley and County just above them, while they go for a top three of MK Dons, Doncaster then Chesterfield.

Gab Sutton for BetVictor: 21st

Sutton knows his EFL onions – although he did tip County to be relegated this time last year – and highlights the concern about the change in style and inexperience of the signings.

“Recruitment is key and, of the 10 players signed at the time of writing, County need six or seven to come up trumps,” he said on the preview.

Sutton continues: “Recruitment could be a mixed bag, and fans will already feel uneasy about a style they’re not accustomed to, a feeling that may grow with a poor start.”

The pundit does, however, tip them to avoid the drop with Harrogate and Accrington his picks at the bottom and MK Dons, Notts County and Doncaster the top three.

Alan Dudman for BetFair: 17th

The highest placing of this selection of predictions came from Betfair, although Alan Dudman also tips a change of boss.

“Nelson Jardim is convinced Newport County can achieve success with a possession-based game this season, and they'll need to do a lot better than last season, as they ended losing every single match from March 23 onwards,” he wrote.

“We've seen grand plans like this before in the lower reaches, and while I'd love to see a side play everyone off the park like Steaua Bucharest from the 90s, it's unrealistic at this level and I wouldn't be banking on Jardim being there for the entire campaign.”

I raise an eyebrow at his pick of Colchester to go down – I believe they could be mid-table and looking up under the Cowleys – along with Morecambe. Port Vale, MK Dons and Doncaster are his top three.

PROMISING: Could Cameron Antwi be a big County hit? (Image: Darren Griffiths/Huw Evans Agency)

South Wales Argus: 15th-20th

I don’t know what will happen with County while it promises to be tough at the top; Stockport, Wrexham and Mansfield have gone up but some big hitters remain.

I fancy Bradford to pick up where they left off under Graham Alexander, when they missed out on the play-offs on the last day.

The Bantams have made strong signings and if they get on a roll then they have the support to provide a boost.

It was a shock to see Doncaster at the bottom for much of last season before their rapid rise to fifth. They endured play-off woe in the semi-finals but can avoid the need to go to Wembley.

MK Dons look a strong contender but I fancy Chesterfield to follow Wrexham in enjoying back-to-back promotions.