TONIGHT Joe Calzaghe searches for the crowning glory of his career at a venue he has dreamed of fighting in since he was 11.
After collating opinions out here in New York for the last few days, it seems that few people believe overwhelming favourite Calzaghe can stop Roy Jones at Madison Square Garden.
Indeed, you can get 7-1 on Calzaghe ending the fight within the distance, even though he is a heavy odds-on favourite to win.
Being a four-weight world champion, from middle to heavyweight, makes Jones a legitimate legend of the sport, but from the looks of him this week, it's also taken a heavy toll on him physically.
He looks like a man who has been weight drained once too often, far older than his 39-years, totally the opposite of Bernard Hopkins. If it's been deliberate to make Calzaghe underestimate him, it's been quite a ruse.
Strange that such a huge fight, some would argue one that is a decade in the making and could very well be the last stand for Calzaghe, now universally recognised as nothing less than an icon of the sport, is being read by most as a one-sided affair.
Most of the American writers believe Joe will win on points, of course with the rider that Jones in his prime would ‘definitely’ have beaten Calzaghe.
The British guys almost universally pick Joe, though interestingly both Lennox Lewis and David Haye believe Jones will shade this fight and cause an upset.
Jones' trainer, Alton Merkerson, insists that Jones is in the best condition of his career, that if Calzaghe wins he will do so in the knowledge that he's beaten the best of Roy Jones, though I think the safest prediction in the world is that Calzaghe won't get that level of credit.
Only now, after he annihilated Kelly Pavlik, are pundits starting to realise how special Joe's defeat of Bernard Hopkins was.
Before that there was the win over Mikkel Kessler, before that a stoppage of Peter Manfredo and of course the master class against Jeff Lacy. Form that speaks for itself, Sakio Bika aside.
Jones on the other hand, has everything to prove. He has won his last three, but victories over a totally shot Felix Trinidad, Anthony Hamshaw – not even a big name in his own home – and Prince Badi Ajumu hardly set the pulse racing.
Before that of course, Jones hit the three-fight losing slump that led to Calzaghe writing him off.
Losing twice to Antonio Tarver and, far more surprisingly being stopped by him, was a worrying sign. He was also knocked out by Glenn Johnson, who has NEVER won any other world title fight by KO.
It seems unlikely that Jones can match Calzaghe's work-rate, stamina or punching ratio over 12 rounds, so he will surely look to counter punch in flurries, hoping to tempt Joe onto his big overhand right or booming left hand that comes in with a velocity that almost defies science.
Jones is still a dangerous animal and he will look to be the aggressor at times, something Hopkins was never prepared to do, the first three minutes of their April showdown in Vegas apart.
It should make for a more eye-catching fight than we saw at the Thomas and Mack Center but, as I've been alluding too, I believe a far more exciting and sudden conclusion is in store.
The stat of Calzaghe being undefeated in 45 fights has rightly been repeated ad nauseum this week, but few reference are made to the fact that 32 of those wins were by KO.
Sure, Joe's hand problems have made his stoppage victories less frequent in recent times and he's also at times struggled to put down the highest calibre of fighters he's faced, but Jones has shown in the recent past that he can be dropped.
Calzaghe's superior stamina, ability to assess a fight while it's in progress and adapt his style and the fact that I simply don't believe Jones has it in him to compete with Joe, who is still in his prime, makes Calzaghe a clear winner for me.
Furthermore, I believe Calzaghe will either KO Jones or force a late stoppage, with cumulative damage leading to a decisive blow in the later rounds, though I expect Jones to set the initial pace and a flash knockdown – as we saw in April – is certainly a possibility.
Calzaghe has been as relaxed as I've seen in a lead up to a fight this week and insists his hands are holding up well. As ever the poppadom hands of Joe's are a cause for concern, should he break his left hand in the early rounds, he cannot possibly beat Roy Jones.
He will also have to do without the services of Frank Warren's matchmaker Dean Powell, who has wrapped Joe's hands for virtually every professional fight he has had and who most consider to be as good as there is in the business.
But to dwell on the possibility of it all going wrong for Joe because of his brittle hands, does a disservice to what is a fascinating and hugely exciting fight, one that could very well be Calzaghe's last.
Joe's legacy is already secure. But I believe he will remain undefeated after this fight and that we will look back on the performance against Jones as one of Calzaghe's very best.
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