DAN Carter probably holds the key to the outcome of the latest Wales-New Zealand battle royal at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday.

It may be a bit simplistic, but if the imperious Carter plays Wales will almost certainly suffer their 22nd successive defeat at the hands of the All Blacks stretching all the way back to 1953.

But if Carter fails to recover from the calf injury he suffered during the Bleddisloe Cup game against Australia in Tokyo last Saturday Wales could be in business.

Obviously the game is about more than whether Carter starts, like the battle for supremacy up front, like whether the talismanic but frequently infringing Richie McCaw can be tamed, like the outcome of the potentially shuddering duel between those two powerhouse centres Jamie Roberts and Ma’a Nonu.

But Carter has such an influence on games and is such a potent goalkicker as well as the man who makes the All Blacks tick that his presence or otherwise could really have that much influence on the result.

For an average of 18 points a game in five appearances against Wales by Carter tells its own story.

Wales have still been handed a gift with the suspension of two other key All Blacks, top prop Tony Woodcock and leading wing Sitiveni Sivivatu.

They are both out of the game after being handed one-match bans following their citing for illegal use of the elbow and a dangerous mid-air tackle, respectively, against the Wallabies.

Given that Wales are without their main tight head prop Adam Jones and were at the risk of being exposed in the scrums the absence of Woodcock could be a real blessing.

Even then the inclusion of Paul James on the loose head for Wales could be seen as a bit of a gamble for he doesn’t start there regularly for the Ospreys. But Wales are not exactly well off in the position and the decision to keep Gethin Jenkins at loose head is probably the right one.

The match has been evened up a great deal now after it appeared Wales had their backs against the wall without Lee Byrne, Mike Phillips and Jones because of injury and with Jenkins and Martyn Williams only just back from shoulder operations.

But the loss of Sivivatu and Woodcock plus the possible absence of Carter has at worst given Wales a chink of light and at best presented them with a real opportunity.