BEATING New Zealand is beyond you – that is the chilling message Newport Gwent Dragons captain Tom Willis, a former All Black, has for Wales going into tomorrow’s potential thriller at the Millennium Stadium.

It is 56 years since Wales got the better of their big southern hemisphere rivals and despite all the mind games played by Warren Gatland this week about the All Blacks losing their aura Willis believes it won’t have the desired effect.

And he predicts the way to yet another New Zealand success will be through their superior scrum.

“This one may be out of reach for Wales and if I was a betting man I’d be putting my money on black,” he said.

“If Wales had their full complement of players I might have really fancied their chances, but they have got key players injured, particularly when it comes to scrum time.

“The big one for me is the loss of Adam Jones for while the All Blacks have lost Tony Woodcock Wales are going to miss a player of Adam’s experience and distinction. The guy who has come in (Wyatt Crockett) may have played only one Test, but he’s a good quality player and the All Blacks will be itching for scrum time. Putting Paul James on the tight head for Wales has got to be a gamble, though someone has got to play there and I suppose it gives him a chance to be a hero.”

Willis acknowledges the danger posed by centre Jamie Roberts, the player-of-the-tour for the Lions in South Africa this summer, but says potential scrum problems could wreck his possible influence on the game.

“Jamie is a fantastic player and the All Blacks will be well versed in his skills set and perceive him as one of the big threats, but he could well be nullified if the scrum is not functioning,” he said.

“The burden of 56 years without success by Wales has reared its head in the media this week and comments about the aura of invincibility slipping, but that could be a kick up the backside for the All Blacks. They’ll know what’s been said and will want to make a statement.

“Gats may be right that the All Blacks are beatable because by New Zealand standards they’ve had a poor season, but teams coming north want to make a statement and finish the year on a high.

“They are probably a bit brassed off about the way people up here perceive them and will want to rectify that.

“The All Blacks are still pretty clinical and I thought it was an efficient display against Australia last week. In fact I thought it was a bit ominous for Wales, and they have also had more rugby under their belts than Wales who will be playing their first game since last year.”

Despite head coach Graham Henry making six changes, four in the pack, from the Australia game, Willis insists it won’t weaken the All Blacks.

“They are still pretty strong. Gatland likes a big, physical approach, but Kaino is a more in your face No 6, Eaton is horses for courses and Leonard has got a bit more X-factor and pace around the fringes at 9,” he said.

“The haka and the stand-off last year made for great theatre, but to me that was more an illustration of the better desire Wales and Gatland have now, that they are not prepared to be intimidated or psychologically influenced.

“The crowd loved it, it was a statement of intent that they would not be dominated and it wouldn’t surprise me if there was more of that gamesmanship tomorrow. I thought it was fantastic last year, the atmosphere was great and the stadium is brilliant.

“One day that record is going to go and I’m sure the emotions and the passions will be stirred up again. It’ll be close, but Wales will live or die by their scrum.”