NO more shocks, no more humiliating exits – that must be the message to the current Wales squad on the brink of the seventh Rugby World Cup.

I have covered five of the previous six competitions and have seen Wales knocked out twice by Samoa and once by Fiji as well as falling again at the group stage when they lost to Ireland in South Africa in 1995.

The first time Wales were humbled by a Pacific Islands team back in 1991 in Cardiff it was by Western Samoa, which prompted the joke that it was a good job it wasn’t the whole of Samoa, as the side is called now.

And coach Alan Davies famously responded by saying he couldn’t carry the hopes of a nation on his shoulder alone.

Well, coaches since have carried a heavy responsibility and Wales have developed a reputation of dismissing coaches either before or straight after a World Cup, Gareth Jenkins being the most recent example.

Warren Gatland could be the latest fall guy if things go badly again, and though he doesn’t want to be in the business of setting targets, preferring to play it game by game, the quarter-finals must be the minimum requirement for Wales.

It is a shocking statistic for a supposed rugby nation that Wales have reached just two quarter-finals and one semi-final, and that was in the very first tournament back in 1987 in New Zealand.

This time the draw has been unkind to them and they are in what is commonly called ‘the pool of death’ for they are up against world champions South Africa who they have only ever beaten once, and Samoa and Fiji who will aim to dump them out of the World Cup again.

So right from the start it’s going to be a tough ask just to get out of the group, and most important of all is the injury situation. The whole key to Welsh success or failure hinges on whether they can get a fit team on to the field.

For they lost their captain Matthew Rees, Morgan Stoddart and Gavin Henson from the reckoning before the squad was even picked.

On top of that there are doubts about some of those players who are actually in the squad and out in New Zealand preparing right now.

Chief of these is loose head prop Gethin Jenkins. He has already been ruled out of the opening game against the Springboks and hasn’t played since January because of a toe injury initially which required an operation and is now troubled by a calf problem.

Great player though Jenkins is, even if he is able to play against Samoa in the second game how can he possibly be match fit? So Gatland is taking a massive gamble by including him, and it’s also an indication of the lack of talent in the position in Wales.

And then there are the Jones boys, Steve and Ryan. The outside half played no part in the three warm-up matches in August after damaging a calf muscle just before the first England match at Twickenham while the former captain pulled out of the Argentina game late with a similar problem.

So how fit are they? Have Wales travelled out to New Zealand without three players who would probably have gone and with doubts hanging over three who are in the squad?

The media are regularly kept guessing, rarely told the real situation until the last minute as when we were originally informed Henson would be out for 6-8 weeks with his damaged wrist but could play a part, then suddenly in a throwaway line it became 12 weeks with no possibility of being involved in the World Cup.

The absolute key game for Wales will be the second one against Samoa, always has been. They will probably go down in the opener against South Africa and could well pick up another couple of injuries in a bruising encounter.

Samoa, on the other hand, will surely breeze past group chopping blocks Namibia in their opener, so will be full of confidence and knowing they have beaten Australia, one of the favourites, as well.

So that second fixture will be very tricky and could well determine whether Wales get out of their group and make the knock-out stages.

The squad Gatland eventually came up with wasn’t without its controversy either as he opted to go with only one specialist openside flanker in new captain Sam Warburton, omitting veteran Martyn Williams in favour of an extra back in Aled Brew, partly because of concerns about the form of full back Lee Byrne.

Wales do, however, have a decent warm-up programme behind them, beating England and Argentina at the Millennium Stadium and running England pretty close at Twickenham as well, scoring three tries to two.

They have shown themselves to be really fit after their summer training campaign which included two camps in Poland and that notorious ice chamber at Spala.

Even the England hierarchy admitted the Wales squad was very fit.

The squad, and Gatland, were relaxed and confident as they set off last week, even upbeat. We must all hope it remains that way. I’m not so sure. History has a nasty habit of repeating itself for Wales at the World Cup.

South Africa, Samoa and Fiji are all lying in wait, and Wales do have injury issues. They ought to make the quarter-finals, but don’t put much money on it.